Risk mitigation and threat assessment: Armenia and geopolitical choices.
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Note: The underlying non-shared and non-disclosed information on which
all contributions are based is restricted and sensitive and NOT reported
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sources.
It is well known and undisputed that #Israel has a large footprint in #Azerbaijan.
It is well known, and again in recent days, that Israel is shipping cargo loads full of delicacies by air to Azerbaijan.
Source:
Multiple flights from Tel Aviv to Azerbaijan’s Baku were reported
overnight, basically non-stop cargo flights. These are deliveries of
drones, loitering munitions and other weapons. Azerbaijan is undoubtedly
preparing for a large-scale offensive on Armenia, planning to annex the
whole territory around #Nakhchivan and possibly further.
It is also widely known and proven that Azerbaijan used these advanced weapon systems in the #Artsakh War against Armenia in the Autumn of 2020. It is not only #Turkey that supports Azerbaijan in its Pan-Turkism aim and reduces #Armenia to nothing.
It
is also well known that Israel goes far beyond its borders solely for
its own interest, namely national security. The proxy war (just another
veiled form of war) against #Iran and #Russia is of existential importance to Israel. Support for Azerbaijan is a great example of this.
Iran has wanted to destroy Israel since 1979 and has the support of #Syria, #Lebanon and #Gaza (Assad, #Hezbollah, #Hamas and #IJMP) and wants a land corridor to the Med.
Since the #Ukraine
intervention, Russia has also warned Israel to let Syria. Furthermore,
Russia knows Israel's position in relation to Ukraine. There are already
sources that report that Israel quietly sees Ukraine as a second
homeland.
Now that Russia and Armenia are key allies in the
region, the hidden struggle between Russia and Israel through Azerbaijan
is quite interesting to mention.
Turkey and Azerbaijan are the well-known aggressors against Armenia and Turkey is simply a useful tool for #NATO and the #USA against Russia and therefore Armenia. (see https://lnkd.in/epbXHt5S)
That is why it is time that Armenia, like Israel, really starts to carve its own safety and survival in granite.
Diplomacy and social clubs have failed to deliver for over 100 years. Examples enough appeared since 1915.
An
existential choice and realizes that it lies between Turkey,
Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia. Turkey and Azerbaijan are mortal enemies of
Armenia, the other two countries are not or less.
It is time,
now that the tides are right, for Armenia to become a mature
interlocutor and make choices that serve only their interests!
And Pelosi visited Armenia? Pffff, this means trouble! Clearly, the only certain thing inhashtag#Ukraineis that Western aggression is being ‘masterminded’ centrally by thehashtag#USandhashtag#NATO. The current counterattacks by NATO-guided, Western
mercenary-led and Western-armed Kyiv forces around Kharkov, Kherson and
elsewhere in Eastern Ukraine againsthashtag#Russia, the new attacks byhashtag#Azerbaijanonhashtag#Armenia, the new Special Forces exercises in southernhashtag#Moldova, the new threat of war against Russia fromhashtag#Georgia‘by referendum’, the
new disloyalty to Russia by the Kazakh leader, the new friction on the
Tadzhik-Kirghiz border on 14 September, the constant attacks on Russia
and Russians in the Baltic States and all the aggressive word and
actions of the US/hashtag#UK/hashtag#EUtowards Russia, are not coincidental.
Last update: Iran is at the Gates of Armenia.
Confirmed: "Since yesterday, full combat readiness has been declared on
the border betweenhashtag#Iranandhashtag#Armenia, infantry and armoured units of the army have been deployed on the border." Further,
in Samarkand, the Iranian Raisi stressed and urged Erdogan to respect
the borders between Iran and Armenia. Raisi stresses the sovereignty and
territorial integrity of countries in meeting with Erdogan.hashtag#Turkeyand Iran are hidden arch-enemies. Sunni against Shia Islam. Further
Baku is warned because of the military build-up of Iran, just as
earlier when they held military drills at the Azeri borders.
and this post 3 days ago:
Author's Note: The
underlying non-shared and non-disclosed information on which all
contributions are based is restricted and sensitive and NOT reported on
this platform LinkedIn. This does not apply to the named open sources.
Armenia as the underlying party? Not really.
After #Azerbaijan's latest aggressive acts of war on Armenian territory, not being #Artsakh this time, there are signs, that Azerbaijan has overplayed its hand with this.
The
Salami war tactics and increasing pressure and appropriating land
little by little for itself has had its last time. Turkish pressure does
not always work out as desired either.
After all international attention was focused on the current #Ukraine
crisis and there was possibly an idea in Baku, to create a second
front, the world community immediately condemned it. Both the #EU and European countries individually, the #USA, #India, #China, #Iran and of course #Russia. It is a talking point in the #UN Security Council and thus attention enough for cold peace in the #Caucasus.
Azerbaijan (and #Turkey
as a staunch ally) have put themselves in the spotlight as
untrustworthy belligerents and this has consequences. Turkey needs a
victory at home because of its dire political situation (elections 2023)
and Azerbaijan is playing with fire.
A peace agreement with Azerbaijan also means that #Syunik will always be #Armenia
and thus there will be no land corridor between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
This is why Baku is still aggressive in its approach. They, like Turkey,
know that a peace agreement blocks their goals of Pan-Turkism. Artsakh
was always the distraction from the war in 2020.
A peace
agreement must include Artsakh. Take it or leave it must be the message.
Otherwise, the threat of war and narrative and the risks are too huge
for Azerbaijan and Turkey right now. It is not Armenia as the underlying
party now. The tide has tilted. The stakes are too high for Baku.
I foresee some pressure to reach a peace agreement. Iran of course is also a target, but this is aside now.
As
mentioned, building tensions. Just monitoring and heading for an
enforced peace agreement. War is not expected. The risk and unknown
outcome for all parties involved are unpredictable, even as there is
information that Armenia expects Azerbaijan and the enclave to try to
create a land corridor.
It is tense, but as mentioned, Iran has
reiterated its Red Line. No corridor and change of borders. Russia also
does not want to lose their influences on Armenia, Azerbaijan and
Turkey, because Turkey is split between Moscow and Kyiv currently.
So the key is to bite now and push through. A peace agreement with the remains of Artsakh.
Otherwise
an Armenian war threat toward Azerbaijan. Why? Baku has entered the
Armenian sovereign borders by force and now is the time to deal with it.
The tide is with us as the saying goes.
Just dare to take the step. Otherwise, lose everything.
During Oct/Sept 2020 the world and media was deafeningly silent. During that time I found out who my TRUE friends were.... those with real human heart and caring. I had to reassess and sift thru "friendships". Life is too short. Got to make room for those who are fair and just, real human beings that care for ALL human rights!
... The genocide that peaked in 1915, still is ongoing.... and Armenians are once again all alone surrounded by vultures, given green light by the "super powers" of today....
There is almighty God and judgement day...
Don't think you are immune. Just remember that during WWII Hitler said in his famous speech before the #holocaust and said "Who remembers the Armenians?" and he proceeded by what all over the world people still cry about what he did... So being passive NOW, you might pay for it in the future.
It now continues with additional violence To all my international friends, colleagues and connections: your indifference can cost lives, stop ignoring what’s happening in Armenia, show the same level of support to Armenia as you showed to Ukraine and Notre Dame. No ONE said a boo when the #cathedral of Stepanagerd was bombed in 2020 by Azeris....
Stop the double standards and ignore Armenians and Armenia.
Sad
news from Armenia. But who are we mocking? At the United Nations, « the
Secretary-General is deeply concerned by reports of renewed fighting on
the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He called on the parties to
take immediate steps to de-escalate tensions, exercise maximum restraint
and resolve any outstanding issues through dialogue and within existing
formats. It also urges them to fully implement the previous agreements.
The Secretary-General expresses his support for all ongoing mediation
efforts in the region.” (Source UN website).
When do you wake up? Do we need another genocide? One and a half million dead later, we keep asking Armenians to make an effort?
Aside
from statements such as “it’s wrong, it’s not nice” or It is bad, YOU
politicians are proposing what for Azerbaijan led by a dictator in power
for 20 years immediately stop bombing another country: Armenia, led by a
duly elected government? In the Caucasus, we are witnessing a tragic
play between a dictatorship and a democracy, except that in this play,
we have real deaths, civilians injured, infrastructure destroyed.
So quick politicians to get votes, thank you for listing action items.
======================================
comments via social media David A.
Are we the collateral damage here? Sad
Ursula von der Leyen
@vonderleyen
The EU is turning to trustworthy energy suppliers. Azerbaijan is one of them.
With today's agreement, we commit to expanding the Southern Gas Corridor, to double gas supplies from Azerbaijan to the EU.
This is good news for our supplies of gas this winter and beyond.
"Azerbaijan's attacks on
the sovereignty of Armenia may be seen as a classic example of
“borderization,” a term coined after the Georgian defeat in the war
against Russian-backed Ossetia in 2008. A process of delimitation and
demarcation ensued, during which Russian forces set up barbed wire, dug
trenches and military checkpoints well inside Georgian territory, much
like Azerbaijan is trying to do now in Armenia." From an article
co-authored with Madlen Avetyan, MA in August 2021 https://lnkd.in/dZKUBDZW#Armenia#ArtsakhIsArmenia#Azerbaijan#Caucasus#Turkey
Hey, world! You are
again silent? Why? Don't you see that Armenian cities are under attack?
Don't you see that Armenians are dying? Oh, yes, because Armenia is not
Ukraine and Azerbaijan is not Russia? Because Azerbaijan's oil is
important? Why I don't see my friends from different countries putting
Armenian flags on their profile photos? Maybe I am blind? Who was
talking about humanity? Or Armenian lives doesn't matter? #stopwarinArmenia
social media comments:
The green light is given to turkey for the new genocide in century 21. Thank you Our "forever steategic pertner" Russia Thank you, Our "enemy countries", ODKB Thank you, "Demecracy center" Europe, except maybe France Thank you USA
In
1915, the whole world sold 1.5 million martyrs for financial gains ,
today the same non just story is continuing, the whole world is watching
and the Armenian Nation is suffering and is under attack again. How
much more Armenians must die so that the world starts being just, at
the end of the day , God Almighty is with us, and we shall prevail and
justice will prevail.
Azerbaijan started war against Armenia on 13th of September 2022.The situation remains extremely tense. They want our lands ,which has never belonged to them.
On
Aug. 22, 1939, Adolf Hitler spoke about how the Holocaust was
influenced by the world’s response to the Armenian genocide. He said,
“Who, after all, speaks today of the annihilation of the Armenians?”
Armenian
Genocide is still not recognized by the aggressors Turkey and
Azerbaijan. And they will not stop their lies and agressions,after they
will start their injustice against other nations..
Do not ignore the truth Dear network let’s break the cycle of injustice.
=================================
Here are articles about the situation in Armenia and Azerbaijan - August 2022
Օգոստոսի 31-ին Բրյուսելում, ԵՄ խորհրդի նախագահ Շառլ Միշելի միջնորդությամբ, տեղի է ունեցել Հայաստանի վարչապետ Նիկոլ Փաշինյանի և Ադրբեջանի նախագահ Իլհամ Ալիևի հանդիպումը:
Քննարկվել են գերիների ազատ արձակմանը և անհետ կորածների ճակատագրի պարզաբանմանը, սահմանազատմանը և սահմանային անվտանգությանը, տարածաշրջանային ապաշրջափակմանը, Հայաստան-Ադրբեջան հարաբերությունների կարգավորմանը, Լեռնային Ղարաբաղի հիմնախնդրին վերաբերող հարցեր:
Պայմանավորվածություն է ձեռք բերվել ԱԳ նախարարների մակարդակով շարունակել առարկայական բանակցությունները խաղաղության պայմանագրի նախագծի մշակման շուրջ: ԱԳ նախարարների հանդիպումը տեղի կունենա մեկ ամսվա ընթացքում:
Սահմանազատման և սահմանային անվտանգության հարցերի հանձնաժողովի հաջորդ հանդիպումը տեղի կունենա Բրյուսելում՝ նոյեմբերին:
Առաջնորդների ֆորմատով հաջորդ հանդիպումը տեղի կունենա նոյեմբերին:
Les Etats-Unis « exhortent » Erevan et Bakou à faire la paix
Les États-Unis exhortent l’Arménie et l’Azerbaïdjan à intensifier leur engagement diplomatique et à parvenir à un accord de paix global, a déclaré Vedant Patel, principal porte-parole adjoint du Département d’État, lors d’un point de presse.
Interrogé sur les attentes du Département d’État concernant la réunion d’aujourd’hui entre le Premier ministre arménien Nikol Pachinian et le Président azerbaïdjanais Ilham Aliev, qui sera accueillie par le Président du Conseil européen Charles Michel à Bruxelles, M. Patel a répondu : « Je n’ai pas de mise à jour à vous communiquer, si ce n’est pour réitérer ce que nous avons dit précédemment, à savoir que les États-Unis restent déterminés à promouvoir un avenir sûr, stable, démocratique, prospère et pacifique pour la région du Caucase du Sud, et nous exhortons l’Arménie et l’Azerbaïdjan à intensifier leur engagement diplomatique et à parvenir à un accord de paix global ».
The meeting between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia, President of the European Council Charles Michel and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was held in Brussels.
Information about this trilateral meeting in Brussels became known for the first time on August 25.
Three matches with the same format have already taken place in Brussels. The first took place on December 14, 2021, the second on April 6, 2022, and the third on May 23, 2022.
The summit, which started with a business breakfast, took place behind closed doors and lasted for four hours.
No details about the content of the discussion have been released at this time.
Armenia and Russia signed
the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance twenty-five
years ago today, August 29. The Foreign Ministries exchanged statements
underscoring the importance of allied relations on the anniversary of
the signing.
updated information August 20, 2022 Philadelphia's recent population decline among largest of major U.S. cities, Census estimates show =================== 15 of the Toughest Neighborhoods in Philadelphia by Camille Moore Top Ten Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in Philadelphia, PA "... However, being the second-largest city in the entire East Coast and the fifth biggest city in America, you can be sure that there will be a considerable amount of crime and dangerous neighborhoods. Violent crimes in Philadelphia rank at 139% higher than the overall rate in America. Some of the major crime areas in Philadelphia are Hunting Park, Elmwood, Fairhill and Strawberry Mansion. The most dangerous neighborhoods in Philadelphia are listed and discussed in detail below. The ten most dangerous neighborhoods in Philadelphia PA The crime rate of any city is usually calculated per 100,000 people. Every
Robert DekkerView Robert Dekker’s profile Author Founder & CEO International Risk Mitigation Services